The March 22, 2012 putsch is a major setback to the country’s nascent democracy.

Democracy in Mali was on Thursday March 22, 2012 dealt a serious blow when a group of mainly low-ranking and non-commissioned officers and rank and file soldiers took over power. The mutiny that began in a military cantonment on the outskirts of the capital, Bamako on Wednesday March 21, 2012 during the visit of the Defence Minister, General Sadio Gassama, quickly snowballed into a coup with soldiers taking over national television and surrounding the presidential palace.

This brought an end to the civilian regime of Amadou Toumani Touré popularly referred to as ATT, who was serving his second and last term. The consequences of the military takeover are multi-faceted – both for the country and the sub-region. First, the country’s nascent democracy is now in jeopardy as the National Committee for the Rectification of Democracy and the Restoration of the State, CNRDR junta led by Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo has suspended the constitution, dissolved democratic institutions and imposed a nationwide curfew. Presidential elections due next month have now been put on hold until the ongoing Azawad National Liberation Movement, MNLA, rebellion is dealt with and the country put together, the new authorities have explained.

Not only was Mali’s democratic credentials tainted by last week’s putsch, but the country now faces isolation from the comity of nations with the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS sub-regional grouping and donors threatening sanctions and the suspension of foreign aid. This does not augur well for a country struggling to contain a growing rebellion and at the same time seeking to equip its military.

Also, the Touareg rebellion in the north appears not to be disposed to any negotiations with the new authorities in Bamako, save on the question of autonomy for their region. There is also the risk of the conflict spreading beyond the country with the several rebel groupings fighting against neighbouring governments emboldened by the situation in Mali.

Captain Sanogo’s men are still struggling to put things together after last week’s chaotic takeover that has been followed by scenes of looting by the military. This presents a great opportunity for MNLA rebels to take advantage of the confusion and make more advances in the north against the already demoralized and ill-equipped national army.

Observers generally agree that recent successes by Touareg rebels in northern Mali are directly attributable to the collapse of the late Libyan leader, Col. Gaddafi’s regime last year. Rebels from Mali and other Sub Saharan countries that fought for him returned home with most of their heavy armaments intact. The impact on Mali today is clear but what happens next in Niger, Algeria, Mauritania, etc? This is especially as the Sahel zone is now caught in a mix of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQMI and other regional and international extremist groups.

Though the new rulers in one of their early declarations called on other soldiers to join their action, it remains to be seen if the senior officer corps will follow suit. Else, it would be wishful thinking to expect the demoralized Malian army to now fare better on the battlefield without its officer corps leading operations.