MNLA Touareg rebels in the north over the weekend declared the independence of Azawad.

The March 22, 2012 putsch in Mali was a major setback not only to the vast country’s nascent democracy, but its unity as one entity. The Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo-led coup leaders that overthrew the civilian regime of President Amadou Toumani Touré had justified their action by the then deteriorating military situation in the north where the ill-equipped military was having it difficult against better armed MNLA Touareg fighters.

Captain Sanogo, under the pressure of international sanctions, has now accepted to hand over power to civilians. But the military situation in the north has since worsened with the declaration of independence on April 6, 2012 by MNLA Touareg rebels for the so called Azawad territory. Rebels had earlier overrun all major towns in the region in the face of an increasingly demoralized army apparently not prepared to put up any fierce resistance.

Today, the country is split into two. With a mix of MNLA rebels, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQMI and other regional and international extremist groups with different agenda controlling the north and the CNRDRE junta about to hand over power, in charge in the south. Though the MNLA rebels have welcomed news of the imminent return to constitutional rule in Bamako, they have however insisted that they are not willing to reconsider their position. Vowing that they are prepared to fight to defend the independence of Azawad.

For the first time ever, Touareg rebels have made their greatest gains by taking large swathes of territory in record time. Dislodging this complex mix of rebels from their stronghold will not be an easy task for any army. For these are tested fighters who fought for the late Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi in that country’s civil war in 2011. And when Gaddafi was toppled and later killed, fighters from Mali and other Sahel countries returned home with most of their military hardware intact.

And while the partition of the country is consolidated with each passing day – with civilians fleeing south and hapless defeated government troops crossing over into neighbouring countries – the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS, and the international community are promising to do all in their power to maintain Mali’s territorial integrity. With Captain Sanogo about to hand over power, France says it is restoring all cooperation with Mali and has expressed its willingness to assist the ECOWAS standby force in intervening to fight the rebels.

What has happened in northern Mali in the past few weeks should preoccupy all those concerned about security in Sahel. The recent gains by rebels are bound to have far-reaching consequences on the Sahel region and even beyond. Sooner or later. Col. Gaddafi who was a stabilising influence in the region is no more. There is therefore high probability of the conflict spreading beyond Mali with the several rebel groupings fighting against neighbouring governments emboldened by the successes of MNLA rebels.