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French Presidential Runoff: The Chances Of Sarkozy, Hollande

Round two of the 2012 presidential election on May 6 could see power reverting to the left.

The first round of the 2012 French presidential election that held on April 22 revealed a major breakthrough for the left. François Hollande of the Socialist Party, PS, came first with 28.6 per cent of the votes. He was followed by incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union of the Popular Movement, UMP party with 27.1 per cent.

The second round of the election scheduled for Sunday May 6, 2012 between Sarkozy and Hollande is expected to be slightly different, with several opinion polls suggesting that Hollande will most likely take the day with a larger margin. Opinion polls on May 3, 2012 suggested that Hollande had a lead of seven percentage points at 53.5 per cent as against Sarkozy’s 46.5 per cent.

Sarkozy is battling to avoid becoming France's first one-term president since Valery Giscard d'Estaing lost to Socialist François Mitterrand in 1981. Sarkozy has said he will pull out of politics if he loses. The race is now on to sway voters of Marine Le Pen who came third in the first round. But Le Pen herself told the press recently that she was not going to give instructions to her voters. If Hollande wins the second round, he will become the first Socialist President since 1995. His election could also alter Europe's political and economic landscape at a time when the continent is seeking a clear direction to overcome its calamitous debt crisis.

A live televised debate on May 2, 2012 between the two contestants was a long, bad-tempered affair that left the impression that neither candidate liked each other. There were plenty of angry exchanges with both candidates accusing each other of lying. Many analysts concluded that neither candidate landed a knock-out blow - which may be to the advantage of Hollande.

The debate was relayed by several channels and took almost three hours; well beyond the scheduled two and half hours. There was a huge build-up to the event described variously by newspapers as ‘The Last Duel’ and ‘The Final Confrontation.’ About a third of France's 63 million people are said to have watched it. Many foreign channels also relayed the debate, with some English-speaking stations interpreting it.

The President had wanted three separate debates on the economy, international affairs and social issues, raising his demands from a week earlier when he suggested that two debates would suffice. But Sarkozy’s request was derided by Hollande and quickly rebuffed.

According to Professor Philippe Marliere, a French politics lecturer at London’s UCL, the request by Sarkozy was a last ditch effort because he was convinced that he is far superior when it comes to debating and will want to show the French people that he, and not Hollande, has the stature of Head of State.

Sarkozy’s eagerness to hold the live TV debate was fuelled by memories of his performance in 2007 when he was widely considered to have trounced his then-rival for the Elysèe Palace, Segolene Royal. That night, Royal could not hide her growing agitation at Sarkozy and accused him of ‘political immorality;’ to which Sarkozy replied that one needs to be calm to be president!

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