Its 3,300 troops could face strong opposition from within and without the country.

Mali’s acting President, Dioncounda Traore on September 4, 2012 formally requested the Economic Community of West African States, ECOWAS’ military assistance in retaking the northern part of the country. The area was overrun last April by Islamic rebels who went on to declare its independence.

The advance of the MNLA rebels and the alleged poor handling of the war by government led to the overthrow of the regime of Amadou Toumani Toure on March 22 by a military junta headed by Captain Amadou Sanogo. Though ECOWAS’ pressure soon put an end to the rule of Captain Sanogo, paving the way for the handover of power to Acting President Traore, things have never been well with Mali.

Though Sanogo is officially out of power, he still continues to wield considerable influence within the military. Observers have warned of the gravity of the situation in the north, saying the presence of al-Qaeda terrorist cells provides the ground for a possible ‘African Afghanistan.’ Last June, ECOWAS military chiefs meeting in Côte d’Ivoire secured commitment from three countries for troop contribution. Nigeria, Niger and Senegal agreed to provide the core of a 3,300-strong force whose initial mission was to bolster Mali's fragmented army, stabilize political institutions, and retake the rebel-held north if talks failed.

The United Nations was however reticent in backing the military intervention plan, saying it needed further clarification. Also complicating the picture for ECOWAS troops is a complex web of heavily armed groups in the north that includes al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM, Ansar Dine, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa, MUJAO, MNLA, and some fighters from Nigerian militant group, Boko Haram. It is in this light that the African Union requested logistic support from Western powers. While awaiting ECOWAS support, Mali is understood to have been retraining and rearming its military. Self-defence groups have also been training in the southern half of the country in readiness for the battle to retake the north.

While there is general enthusiasm at sub-regional level for military intervention in Mali, supporters of Captain Sanogo are opposed to it. In the past, the former junta leader had made it clear that he wanted ECOWAS presence in the country in terms of intelligence-gathering, financial and logistic support, arguing that with over 26,000 men, Mali’s army was capable of retaking the north from rebels. On the other hand, neighbouring Algeria is known to be reluctant to intervene, fearing a backlash among its own Tuareg population. Apart from Mali, Tuaregs numbering about 1.2 million are also found in Niger, Burkina Faso and Libya.

France’s Defence Minister, Jean-Yves Le Drian last week restated his country’s readiness to support an ECOWAS-led military intervention in northern Mali. He expressed hope that the European Union would also offer support, promising to raise the issue with his Spanish counterpart, Pedro Morenes later this month.

While the new unity government and transitional institutions in Bamako highlight a shift toward a Malian-owned peace process, a holistic and sustainable response to the crisis requires stronger partnerships between ECOWAS, Malian authorities and the new African Union Commission.