Though rebels have been driven out of northern Malian towns, restoring stability will not be easy.
Thanks to French military intervention, all major towns in northern Mali hitherto held by an array of rebel groups have now been retaken and France is already planning to withdraw some of its troops next month. In the wake of the operation to retake the vast north, various nations pledged or offered military support in terms of transport, logistics and troops.
Not Yet Peace
Northern Mali is now largely under French and Malian government control. However, no one was fooled by the ease with which the French and Malian troops swept into most towns. Rebels have now taken refuge in mountainous and inaccessible areas near to the country's porous borders, seeking to mount hit and run attacks to challenge the authorities' control. Fighting such a war would require very different skills and equipment, with the onus very much on intelligence gathering and the ability to rapidly strike at fleeting targets. One lesson from recent conflicts across the globe is that winning war is much easier than winning peace. The examples of Iraq and Afghanistan are there to tell the story.
Poverty, Drought
Years of poverty and drought in northern Mali have proved effective recruiting grounds for jihadist extremists. Though pushed out of major population centres, the militants are still well armed, thanks to fresh supplies of guns, ammunition and rockets, looted from Colonel Gaddafi's arsenals in Libya after the fall of his regime in 2011. Consequently, there is high risk of protracted guerilla warfare, warned former British Head of Defence Staff, General Sir Mike Jackson. This could therefore be a war of bomb attacks, raids and assassinations like was the case in Gao last week.
Peace, Reconciliation
Some of those fighting the Malian government were not jihadists but Tuareg warriors with well-founded but essentially local grievances. The challenge is to distinguish between the two, eliminate the former and negotiate with the latter. This will require good intelligence as well as some brute force. With presidential elections scheduled for June 2013, finding an early governing formula by which legitimate national civilian authorities can extend their control throughout the country will be no easy task. This will not be helped by reports of reprisals against Tuareg civilians by Malian troops. Given Mali’s vast size, it might be worth considering a decentralized form of government to assuage the concerns of various ethnic nationalities – especially in the north.
Funding Peace, Reconstruction
The international community last month at the African Union summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, raised 455.5 million dollars (about FCFA 223 billion) for the African-led military force for Mali, AFISMA, the Malian army as well as humanitarian aid. However, the pledges fell far short of the 960 million dollars (about FCFA 470 billion) the AU says is needed. The shortfall in funding might seriously affect the effectiveness of the army in maintaining peace and security.
Possible Extended Stay?
The French, who have intervened in Africa 50 times since 1960, were able to scatter the enemy with sustained air and ground offensives, but stabilising Mali will be a far greater challenge. This will not be helped by the weak and dysfunctional government in Bamako led by interim President Dioncounda Traore, whose administration is still haunted by the ‘unrepentant’ masterminds of the March 2012 coup.
It will therefore take considerable outside assistance in terms of logistics, communications and intelligence to enable Malian and African troops to do more than simply garrison towns. A sustained counter-insurgency campaign by militants in the vast spaces of northern Mali could well require a French military role for some time. France got into Mali at short notice, but getting out may be quite another matter.
