Madagascar’s political crisis has its roots in social inequalities perpetuated over the years.

Madagascar, an island nation located in the Indian Ocean, has experienced protracted political instability since early 2009 when tensions between the then President, Marc Ravalomanana and Andry Rajoelina, the former mayor of the country’s capital city, Antananarivo, escalated, culminating in President Ravalomanana’s forced removal from office.

Genesis Of Crisis

A tiny elite class had benefited from President Ravalomanana’s liberalisation of the economy, creating political strife and animosity towards the President.  In January 2009, one of the demonstrations turned violent, resulting in the death of 100 people. In March 2009, Ravalomanana resigned and fled to Swaziland, though he later said he was forced to hand over power at gunpoint to the military. The military immediately transferred power to Andry Rajoelina. The international community condemned the coup and responded by cutting off vital aid and imposing sanctions.

Causes Of Crisis

Social Inequalities

The key reason for the 2009 Madagascar crisis was inequality and social injustice. In spite of a six per cent growth in 2007, 70 per cent of the population still survived on less than One U.S. Dollar (about FCFA 500) a day. In addition, more than 59 per cent of the population was chronically malnourished, according to a 2007 African Development Bank report. Previously, poverty was characteristic of rural areas, but urban poverty had grown from 43 per cent in 2001 to 52 per cent in 2005, said the IMF in a 2007 report.

Unpopular Policies

Moreover, the eagerness of Ravalomanana’s government to pursue neoliberal policies led to the privatisation of basic social services, thus putting them out of reach of the poor. Public discontent with the regime grew as a result of a drop in living standards, a rise in the cost of petrol and basic goods, and the decline in production in export processing zones - a major source of employment.

Misplaced priorities 

Presidential power became increasingly dictatorial, heightening public anger and frustration and drawing condemnation from the civil society and the country’s intellectuals. Moreover, the President made serious economic miscalculations such as the purchase of a presidential jet at 60 million U.S. Dollars (about FCFA 30 billion) and the granting of a 99-year lease to Daewoo to cultivate over half of the country’s arable land.

Repetitive Crises

From a historical perspective, the 2009 clash between Rajoelina and Ravalomanana was an episode in a decades-long crisis. It was the fourth time in the country’s history that a popular uprising had gripped Antananarivo. The three previous ones took place in 1972, 1991 and 2002.

Prone To Disasters

In addition to its political troubles, Madagascar is a country prone to natural disasters like heavy floods and severe droughts. Every year, three to four cyclones hit the island nation located off the coast of Mozambique, knocking down schools and houses and leaving people destitute. The southern part of the country faces regular droughts and floods.

Lack Of Consensus

Though Transitional President Andry Rajoelina had on taking over power, pledged to hold presidential elections by October 2010, he failed to live up to the promise. This followed a constitutional referendum and revision of the electoral code. He has in the past not been able to agree with former Presidents Marc Ravalomanana, Albert Zafy and Didier Ratsiraka on the way forward for the country.

But following the holding of a national reconciliation conference from April 18 to 20, 2013 and the earlier withdrawal from this July’s elections by both Rajoelina and Ravalomanana, the end to Madagascar’s crisis might be in sight.