Mali is expected to hold general elections on July 28, 2013 on a rather tight electoral calendar.

Malians will on July 28, 2013 vote in first round polls aimed at electing the next President and Parliament. If inconclusive, a second round for the presidential poll will hold on August 11, 2013. The elections will conclude a process seen as key to restoring democratic institutions and stability to the vast country after the March 2012 military coup and subsequent takeover of most of the north by Islamic militants.

Peace Deal

In order to pave the way for the holding of elections all over the country, the government and two Tuareg rebel groups - the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad, MNLA and the High Council for the Unity of Azawad, HCUA – recently signed a deal on the return of State services, the military and security forces to the rebel-held northern town of Kidal. The agreement also provides for further all-inclusive negotiations on the concerns of northerners after the poll.

Military Reconciliation

The mastermind of the March 2012 coup, Captain Amadou Haya Sanogo, last week publicly reconciled with factions of the Malian Army. The move is seen as a positive omen for the military’s esprit de corps. At the ceremony that took place in the presence of Interim President Dioncounda Traoré, Sanogo also apologised for last year’s destabilizing military takeover. The coup preceded an election planned for April 2012 in which President Amadou Toumani Touré was not eligible to stand.

Election Preparations

Election officials on Saturday, June 29, 2013 began distributing millions of biometric voter cards, with a few weeks to go before the July 28 presidential poll. Experts fear that majority of the 6.9 million registered voters will not receive their cards on time; without which they cannot vote. There is therefore concern that an election at the end of this month would likely be shambolic. Moreover, the results would almost certainly be challenged as the electoral timeline appears to be too tight for any adjustments short of postponement.

The Case For Postponement

Analysts argue that delaying the poll for no more than three months would give the authorities time to complete the distribution of new voter cards to all registered voters, re-deploy District Officers on a permanent basis and give them the necessary resources and time to restore security and prepare for the election. The additional time will also extend the period for internally displaced people to provide their current locations to committees establishing final voter lists and complete special electoral lists for refugees in neighbouring countries.

U.N. Military Deployment

The 12,600-strong U.N. Stabilisation Mission in Mali, MINUSMA, began deploying on July 1, 2013 in readiness for elections on July 28. Proponents of delay say it would give the mission enough time to provide appropriate logistical and technical assistance, and effective security. It will also be able to support the authorities in anticipating sensitive post-electoral challenges such as securing and conveying polling station official minutes, and deterring or managing post-electoral violence.

Security, French Withdrawal

Northern Mali remains insecure, vulnerable to attacks by armed groups, and partly outside of government control. The gains that the French made by retaking the north and putting militant Islamist groups on the run are neither absolute nor irreversible, warns the International Crisis Group. Suicide attacks and roadside bombs have plagued northern regions since February, with Gao and Timbuktu seeing repeated clashes. France's partial withdrawal that will see 2,000 troops leave before the election, only increases the risk of violence. U.N. troops will not be as well organised, trained or equipped as the French and they are neither mandated nor prepared to deal with insurgents. France's premature departure could easily hand the advantage to Islamist groups and potentially lead back to the status quo ante. 

Until recently, Mali was considered a success story in West Africa, having held regular presidential, legislative and local elections since return to multi-party democracy in 1992. Reliving that experience through forthcoming general elections remains a tall order for the Malian government and the international community.