Prof. Emmanuel Yenshu Vubo, political science lecturer at the University of Buea, Cameroon, explains reasons behind the unprecedented humanitarian, security and economic crisis that is threatening to turn the Central African Republic into a failed state.

What explains the deteriorating security, economic and humanitarian situation in the Central African Republic, CAR?

The situation, which is one of a failing state, is as a result of long standing instability in the country and the tacit understanding among Central African Republic elite that the force of arms can be a mode of getting to power. We can add the fact that the major international actors have been either accomplices or have actively supported the situation. Historically, all problems are traced to the takeover of Bokassa from the founding President David Dacko in 1960.

That was when the perverted view that politics can be actively pursued by arms came to stay. Then came the succession of military regimes (Dacko in 1979 and Kolingba in 1981), each struggling to give itself a veneer of legitimacy by resorting to mock elections whose outcomes were always in their favour. Even when Patassé was democratically elected in 1993, he was toppled by Bozizé in 2003 who tried to convert himself into a civilian ruler until Séléka elements led by Michel Djotodia ousted him.

Does it mean the political class has never reached consensus?

As you see, the country’s history has been marked by an endless series of military takeovers. We can say that the country has never known political consensus and that would explain why each dissatisfied group could take to the bush to produce a new government without the consent of the people. The last take over was just one in a series.

What next for the country?

Citizens are evidently going to be affected by fighting: food will be in short supply, medicine and health services will be unavailable because of the insecurity, and people will be displaced because of the insecurity… The list of humanitarian problems is long. The present group in power is overwhelmed by this situation. It is not equipped or trained to handle such complexities.

Is a quick return to normalcy and the 18-month transition programme still feasible?

Normalcy cannot come on its own. It has to be organised. If things continue in the same way, there will be worse things to come. Who will organise a transition in the absence of consensus?

What can the international community do to bring the country out of this predicament?

The international community failed when it did not protect the democratically elected President, Ange-Felix Patassé. It can only justify its presence on humanitarian grounds and that will be too late. On the contrary, civil political leaders (not persons brought to power by force of arms) should bring pressure to bear on the current authorities to relinquish power and come to a consensus on how to establish civilian political order in the country. In the process, the international community (UN most importantly, but also some world powers) can be called in to assist in establishing that order, rather than be the principal actors. In Africa, political order can best be achieved from within than from outside.