Madagascar today, October 25, 2013, holds crucial presidential polls to end four years of crisis.

The people of Madagascar will today, October 25, 2013, hold a much-delayed presidential election amid high expectations of ending a long-running political crisis that was prompted by the 2009 coup. A total of 33 candidates are contesting after a court barred three political heavy weights from standing.

Parliamentary elections will follow on December 20, 2013, along with a second round presidential poll if the vote does not deliver an outright winner. Today’s poll is one year behind schedule according to a 2011 agreement that was brokered by the regional bloc, the Southern African Development Community, SADC, to help return the beleaguered island nation to political stability.

Ending Instability

The greatest challenge for today’s presidential vote is to bring to a close four years of instability caused by recurrent political bickering over who was qualified or not to stand for elections. This followed the 2009 coup by former disc jockey, mayor and now Transitional President Andry Rajoelina, who overthrew President Marc Ravolamanana. If all goes well, Madagascar could soon come out of political doldrums, thereby ensuring the restoration of peace and stability through constitutional rule. This will also enable the country to return to the comity of nations after four years.

Credibility Of Vote

The credibility of the poll will be key in determining Madagascar’s future. The stamp of approval is not just needed from the presidential candidates and their political parties, but also from international observers, the donor community, SADC, the European Union, the African Union, former colonial master, France, etc. It was thanks to pressure from the international community that the presidential ambitions of Transitional President Andry Rajoelina, former First Lady, Lalao Rakotonirainy Ravolamanana and ex-President Didier Ratsiraka, were cut short by a court order.

Economy, Sanctions

As a result of the crisis, the African Union suspended Madagascar and imposed sanctions against President Rajoelina and 108 government officials. On the other hand, the European Union froze a 600-million-Dollar (about FCFA 288 billion) aid programme, while the U.S. shelved a preferential trade agreement with Madagascar. The credibility of the election is therefore expected to unblock much-needed frozen foreign aid.

The country’s tourism industry has also suffered badly from the turmoil as foreign companies have been wary of investing in rich oil, gold, chrome and nickel reserves. Even though Madagascar is the world’s second-largest vanilla grower, the IMF says the economy has posted no growth over the past four years. This compares with a 5.7 per cent annual expansion before Rajoelina took power. The IMF estimates economic growth this year at only 2.6 per cent, and 3.8 per cent in 2014.

New, Old Guard Politicians

As a result of pressure from the international community, the old guard politicians that have dominated Malagasy politics were barred from running. And thus for the first time, the country has an opportunity of experimenting with new leaders, though some have been part of the ruling establishment. It however remains to be seen what Andry Rajoelina, Lalao Rakotonirainy Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana, will do. They remain influential political figures and will continue to wield power from behind the scenes after the vote, warns U.S-based Strategic Forecasting Incorporated. It says they will continue dominating Malagasy politics, though not in office.