Madagascar’s runoff presidential candidates are backed by the country’s two main political rivals.

Over seven million voters in Madagascar go to the polls this Friday, December 20, 2013, to elect the next President in a runoff poll after none of the 33 candidates won an outright majority in the first round vote last October 25.  The second round candidates are Dr. Jean Louis Robinson who scored 21 per cent in the first round and Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana who took about 16 per cent of the 4.5 million valid votes cast.

Context Of The Vote

The first round vote was postponed three times this year after months of wrangling between the country’s stakeholders. Andry Rajoelina ousted his predecessor, Marc Ravalomanana four years ago in a military-backed putsch. The 2009 coup led to a devastating economic crisis in Madagascar after sanctions were imposed on the country and several individuals involved in the takeover.

As a result, the economy has been in a state of paralysis and foreign aid, which once accounted for almost half of the country's budget, has been suspended. According to the World Bank, over 92 per cent of Madagascar's population of 21 million now lives on less than US$ 2 (about FCFA 955) a day. There are 47.4 deaths for every 1,000 live births and the average lifespan is 65 for men and 69 for women.

Candidate Profiles, Manifestoes

Dr Richard Jean-Louis Robinson, a 61-year-old aerospace medical specialist who served as Marc Ravalomanana’s Health Minister, is standing for the Avana (Rainbow) party. Robinson is supported by former President Marc Ravalomanana. Robinson says his electoral programme draws heavily on a new version of Ravalomanana's Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) to help rebuild society and also rejuvenate the ailing tourism industry. He has pledged to open all companies closed during the political crisis of late 2008 and restore trust between international donors and Madagascar.

Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana, 55, an economist and accountant, is a former Minister of Finance in the current transitional government of President Andry Nirina Rajoelina. Representing the Fidio party, Rakotoarimanana is backed by Ravalomanana’s bitter rival, Transitional President Andry Nirina Rajoelina. He has been board chair of Air Madagascar and Director of the National Institute of Accounting and Enterprise Management. He plans to assist the unemployed, build infrastructure to improve agriculture, reform the educational system and make Madagascar a strong democracy. His manifesto also covers tourism and better cooperation with international donors.

Chances Of Victory

The chances of Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana winning this week’s second round presidential vote were recently threatened following a terrible faux pas in his political camp. His candidacy was questioned after President Rajoelina publicly announced support for him in contravention of electoral rules. The two are also embroiled in internal squabbles that threaten to torpedo the former Finance minister's bid to become President.

His opponents have seized on this to urge the country's electoral authorities to disqualify Rajaonarimampianina. Under Madagascar electoral law, public officials must be neutral during elections, while an internationally-brokered roadmap also strongly stipulates their non-alignment. The Special Electoral Court, CES, which has received three disqualification requests against Rakotoarimanana, could also remove him from the race.

In the meantime, Dr Jean Louis Robinson's camp has been swelling with new supporters. They include the former deputy head of the International Court of Justice, Prof. Raymond Ranjeva, and Prof. Eugène Mangalaza, the Prime Minister appointed by the Addis Ababa Agreement, but snubbed by President Rajoelina in 2010.

With his 21 per cent lead from the first round, Jean Louis Robinson stands a good chance of winning Friday’s vote. On the other hand, Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana has a lot of catching up to do. His 16 per cent score in last October’s election and the unpopularity of his main backer, President Rajoelina, suggest that the fight will not be easy for him.