Dr. Peter Sakwe Masumbe, Senior Lecturer in Public Policy and International Relations, University of Buea. A visiting lecturer at the University of Florida, USA, University of South Africa,

Pretoria and Madonna University, Okija, Nigeria, Dr Masumbe analyses Madagascar's propsects of return to normalcy after the runoff poll on December 20, 2013.

Can the second round presidential election in Madagascar on December 20, 2013 ensure return to normalcy after four years of political deadlock?

The election may not put an end to the crisis except goodwill prevails in Madagascar’s politics. Transitional President Andry Rajoelina has just dissolved the governments of eight regions in the south of the country, replacing their administrators with military governors loyal to him. The candidate he backs, Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana, took about 16 per cent of votes in the first round on October 25, 2013. He was second to Dr. Jean Louis Robinson who is supported by Rajoelina’s political rival, former President Marc Ravalomanana. Robinson garnered 21 per cent of the ballot, leaving the other 31 candidates to share the rest.

President Rajoelina appears to fear that his candidate may not win; reason why he decided to carry out the shakeup of eight regional governments to boost Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana’s electoral chances on December 20, 2013. This unconstitutional move is a leeway to rigging. Unless the elections are free and fair, they might be problems.

What role can politicians who were banned from running in the presidential poll like Andry Rajoelina, Marc Ravalomanana, Lalao Ravalomanana and Didier Ratsirika, play in the new Madagascar?  Can we say they are completely out of the political scene?

They are not out of the scene; they are working from the background, projecting their stooges or protégés. Marc Ravalomanana is projecting Dr Jean Louis Robinson while Andry Rajoelina backs Hery Rajaonarimampianina Rakotoarimanana. Rakotoarimanana and Robinson are thus running as puppets of their political masters.

If any of them wins, they are likely to receive instructions from their masters and not carry out their own policies. The banned politicians will not be in power, but will continue playing active politics from the background; meaning they are still ‘ruling.’ If this happens, there will be problems.

The old guard politicians were banned because they had become a cankerworm to the country’s politics. Stakeholders wanted them to give way to new blood, but if the old guard does not completely step aside, then, they will continue to dominate Madagascar’s politics. But there is hope if the next leader is elected on a clean slate and decides to separate himself from his main backer.

The picture you paint does not look so bright. Do you see any chance of Madagascar being readmitted soon into the comity of nations?  

Such readmission is dependent on the organisation of free and fair elections by Madagascar’s people. The country was suspended from the African Union because the military intervened in politics. The AU, European Union, donors and other international partners are likely going to maintain sanctions if the people who have been a hindrance to the country’s progress are seen to continue to do so.

What future do you then see for Madagascar?

Madagascar is a very poor nation, one of the poorest in the world. If the people drop ethnic-based politics and manage their resources well, the country will do better. The country’s future will only be bleak if the politicians decide to make it so.