The 2009 overthrow of President Marc Ravalomanana led to four years of political deadlock.

The people of Madagascar may now heave a sigh of relief with the election of Hery Martial Rokotoarimanana Rajaonarimampianina as the next President. It is hoped that the December 20, 2013 second round poll, generally seen as being free and fair, will end the crisis that has dragged on since the 2009 overthrow of President Marc Ravalomanana.

Even though the loser, Dr Jean Louis Robinson, says he will challenge the results in court, there is hope the country may soon regain normalcy and return to the comity of nations. Rajaonarimampianina took 53.51 per cent of the votes as against 46.49 per cent for Dr Robinson.

Demise Of Ratsiraka 

Marc Ravalomanana, a self-made dairy tycoon, came to power in July 2002 after beating Marxist President, Didier Ratsiraka, who held on to power for 23 years. A prosperous businessman, Ravolamanana pushed on with an agenda that sought to reduce poverty by focussing on economic growth and market liberalisation.

His free-market reforms were welcomed by donors, investors and about 70 per cent of the population. Not surprisingly, he was re-elected in December 2006. Though Ravalomanana’s first term saw increased aid and foreign debt cancellation, poverty remained endemic.  

Power Tussle, Coup

As the economy deteriorated, opposition to Ravalomanana’s rule began to increase, with people taking to the streets over rising prices. In 2008, tensions rose between the President and Andry Nirina Rajoelina, a very successful media entrepreneur and Mayor of the capital, Antananarivo. At stake was the government’s alleged delayed disbursement of funds for projects in the capital and reported diversion of investments meant for the city.

When Ravolamanana shut down Rajoelina’s radio after it aired a speech by former President Ratsiraka, tensions mounted further. This led to the President firing Rajoelina as Mayor, triggering a revolution. The military then intervened, obliging Ravalomanana to sign power over to them; which they later handed to Andry Rajoelina.

International Sanctions

Andry Rajoelina’s declaration of himself as ‘President of the High Transitional Authority,’ HAT, was widely condemned by the international community as a coup d’état. Though he pledged to hold presidential elections by October 2010, it never came to pass, despite the holding of a constitutional referendum and revision of the Electoral Code.

The African Union and the Southern African Development Community, SADC, suspended the country. Most donors, including the US and European Union, also suspended crucial assistance. Additionally, the AU and others enacted targeted sanctions or travel restrictions on HAT members seen to be impeding the return to democracy.

Facilitation Of Democratic Process

On September 17, 2011, representatives of most of Madagascar's major political factions signed a road map for ending the crisis that was later endorsed by the SADC. The aim was to form a more inclusive, power-sharing interim government that would prepare the country for elections. The AU formed an international contact group to ensure a return to constitutional rule. The SADC on its part appointed former Mozambican President, Joaquim Chissano, to seek a consensual and negotiated solution to the crisis.

Interminable Transition

In spite of efforts by the international community, Madagascar’s political stakeholders did not agree on the way forward, leading to the postponement of polls on several occasions. A referendum held in November 2010, approved a new constitution that lowers the minimum age for the President, allowing Andry Nirina Rajoelina, then 36 years, to run.

President Rajoelina initially agreed with ex-President Marc Ravalomanana not to stand for the presidency in 2013, but changed his mind after the former First Lady, Lalao Rakotonirainy Ravalomanana, announced she would run. Consequently, Andry Rajoelina, Lalao Ravalomanana, Marc Ravalomanana, Didier Ratsiraka and several key political figures, were later barred from running.

Advent Of Robinson, Rajaonarimampianina

A total of 33 candidates participated in the first round of the presidential election on October 25, 2013. Hery Martial Rokotoarimanana Rajaonarimampianina, backed by President Andry Rajoelina, got 15.9 per cent of valid votes. Dr Jean Louis Robinson, supported by Marc Ravalomanana, received 21.1 per cent. A second round poll on December 20, 2013, alongside parliamentary elections, saw Hery Rajaonarimampianina turning the tides to win by 53.51 per cent as against 46.49 per cent for Jean Louis Robinson.