Dr. Nsoh Christopher Ndikum, a Senior Lecturer in Political Science at the University of Yaounde II and a visiting lecturer at a number of renowned institutes and universities in Yaounde, explains the origins and possible outcome of the Ukrainian conflict.

What explains the crisis in Ukraine where Parliament on February 22, 2014 removed President Viktor Yanukovych?

In early 2013, President Viktor Yanukovych indicated his intention to sign a political and trade agreement with the European Union. This declaration rekindled hopes in many Ukrainians who for quite some time now have been nursing hopes to join the EU. Some hoped that the agreement would boost economic growth, reverse the economic doldrums the country is facing today, facilitate modernisation and promote inclusion into the EU.

Suddenly, in November 2013, the President changed his mind and said he will no longer sign any agreement with the EU. Some Ukrainians interpreted this as bad faith and considered their President as not being credible. There was a reason for his sudden change of mind. Russia, opposed to the EU deal, threatened trade sanctions and an increase in gas bills. Russia proposed that if Ukraine joined the Eurasian Customs Union - the Moscow-led trade bloc - it will benefit from huge discounts on natural gas supply.

Since Ukraine imports its gas from Russia; a fact that Russia has always used to determine the pace of relations between the two countries. There was also the imprisonment of President Yanukovych’s most astute political opponent, Yulia Tymoshenko. She was imprisoned for seven years for abusing her position in a Russian gas deal. This accusation was seen as political manoeuvring by the West. Seriously ill in prison, President Viktor Yanukovych refused to send her abroad for treatment. This annoyed her supporters and escalated demonstrations which added to an already fragile situation to push Yanukovych out of power.

Can the current struggle between the West and Russia over who 'controls' Ukraine be interpreted as a return to the Cold War days? Do you think the crisis can develop into full-scale war?

I think talk of Cold War is an overstatement. I will not qualify it as a possible return to the Cold War era. Nevertheless, there are different interests being manifested by Russia and the West. The West and Russia are looking for territory to influence, but it cannot be as what used to obtain during the Cold War. Firstly, Ukrainians are looking for ways to relate with the West, come out of the economic doldrums and modernise their economy.

Secondly, Russia was isolated during the Cold War era - an issue Russia will not wish to experience again. And thirdly, the West wishes to see a liberal Ukraine that can determine its future. I think Ukraine has to determine its future, though this cannot be successful without complete participation of the West and Russia.

The West must be very tactful in seeking a diplomatic way of engaging Russia to assist Ukraine. If this is not done, Russia can under-the-carpet continuously destabilise Ukraine. However, I do not see the current crisis developing into full-scale war, even though Russian forces have moved out of their Crimean bases.

What future is there for Ukraine as an entity, with threats of partition in Crimea already looming?

The threat of secession from Crimea presents a complex situation. It should be emphasised that this part of the country has once been Russian territory that was handed over by Nikita Khrushchev in 1954 to Ukraine. The region is composed of majority ethnic Russians. Are Russian troops in Crimea going to defend the population? Is Ukraine going to watch Russia abuse her territorial integrity? Is Ukraine as weak as Georgia that Russia had an easy invasion and until date, its forces are still occupying part of the country?

If these questions are not in the affirmative, then the likelihood of this part of Ukraine contemplating secession will be very difficult. I do not think the threat of secession by Crimea is an idea that has got roots from within. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian government has to handle the situation with a lot of tact to preserve its territorial integrity.

Identity issues must be well spelt out in the Constitution in order to enable each ethnic group in the country to be well defined, feel secure and represented in the government. Wealth and power-sharing must be on the basis of justice and equality. The Ukrainian government has the obligation to make sensitive policies to mitigate secessionist sentiments.