Crimea’s decision to join Russia is certain to strain ties with the West for some time.

It will certainly take time for tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine to cool off. The ill feelings will no doubt linger for some time, but in the long, it will be business as usual. This is especially so as two facts now seem irreversible: the pro-Moscow leader of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, was overthrown on February 21, 2014, while Crimea yesterday March 16, 2014,  voted to join the Russian Federation – a decision that Moscow has already promised to recognise.  

Damage To Economic Ties

The West has threatened full-scale sanctions against Russia, which might include trade, banking and investment restrictions or even asset freezes, if Russia moves deeper into Ukraine. Though the West can exert pressure on the Russian economy by making it harder for its companies to access global financial markets, such action may have a boomerang effect.

Several European Union countries rely on Russian spending while some high-profile US and European companies have multi-billion Dollar investments in Russia. On the other hand, Moscow holds the lever – it is currently Ukraine’s largest trade partner nation; while Europe that relies on Russia for 30 per cent of its natural gas, cannot substitute its energy imports in the short-term.

Hurdles To Political Cooperation

The cooperation of Russia, France, Britain and US is necessary for any concerted international action at the UN Security Council. As permanent members alongside China, each of these powers can veto any unfavourable decision. While sanctions and counter-sanctions might prevail in the wake of Crimea’s decision to join Russia, the situation is not expected to last very long. Sooner or later, both Russian and Western leaders will realise that they need each other. As a former super power, no one can pretend that Russia’s political and military clout do not count any longer.      

One Another’s Military Keeper

Both the US and Russia remain military super powers with the world’s largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. Their continuous cooperation and collaboration in military matters is a must for world stability. For now, the likelihood of any American military intervention in the conflict in Ukraine is slim, observers have noted. Just like in the economic sphere, both Washington and Moscow realise that they need each other’s cooperation, especially in the world’s trouble hotspots such as Syria, Lebanon, the Middle East peace talks, etc.

Middle-Of-The-Road Posture

President Viktor Yanukovych was kicked out of power last month after refusing to sign a trade deal with the EU in 2013. Instead, he signed a preferential trade agreement with Russia that angered his Western-backed opponents. Adopting a conciliatory tone last week, US Secretary of State, John Kerry, sought to defuse tensions over Ukraine by saying Kiev did not have to choose between allying with the West or Russia.

“We believe Russia has interests and the ability to be important to the development of Ukraine, and so does Europe. There is no reason why they (the people of Ukraine) shouldn’t look in both directions. We (Americans) look East, West, North and South, and I think it’s very important to be careful about those kinds of limits.”