Prof. Yenshu Emmanuel Vubo, a Political Sociologist with the University of Buea, revisits the ongoing chaos in Libya, more than three years after the war against Muammar Gaddafi began.
Why is Libya yet to know peace and stability, more than three years after the start of the war against Col. Muammar Gaddafi?
The situation in Libya is one of unanticipated outcomes of the grand scheme to complete the dismantling of what remains of the former eastern bloc and its allies. The collapse of that bloc, which was captured in the fall of the Berlin, ushered in a variety of scenarios: official and overt, unofficial, covert and officious, immediate and short-term, while others were protracted and the object of long-term strategizing.
On the other hand, some of the scenarios were peaceful, others the object of force; while some were orderly, chaotic, etc. Whatever the case, all of them are part of the long-term construction of a new world order in which the current events are but part of a series of transitions of basically economic and political nature. These transitions are in phases. The first phase, essentially European, was marked by the capitulation and disintegration of the Soviet Union, accompanied by the fall of Communist regimes in Eastern and Central Europe. This was followed swiftly by political and economic transitions resulting in political and economic liberalization in the same spheres.
A second phase has seen a restructuring of the interstate system in the same area with the European Union gradually transforming this same zone into a desired liberal political enclave as dreamt of in the grand design of the new world order. This did not go as peacefully as one would have thought: the Bosnian genocide and the several wars of secession that led to a multiplicity of states was the ugly side of this transition. The Georgian crisis and the current tussle between Russia and Ukraine that derives from the issue of membership into the European Union is a perfect illustration of this unfolding scenario.
A new division of responsibilities has also emerged with these developments. The new unified Germany alongside France under some sort of NATO surveillance, the active support of the United States of America and the international legitimacy of the UN, has the responsibility for this transition. This has not been the same situation for the transitions in the rest of the world and has been the object of several trials and brutal dismantling of pockets of resistance that derive from the Cold War situation.
The Bretton Woods institutions were used to obtain the twin goals of forcing Sub-Saharan African countries to adopt market reforms and liberalize politically in the 1990s, but the same could not be obtained from Libya under Gaddafi, Syria under the younger Assad, not to talk of Iraq under Saddam Hussein – all regimes that had developed into veritable fortresses during the Cold War.
Rather, the latter group went into a series of quixotic confrontations with the newly reconfigured Western alliance that is in search of a new form of hegemony. The strategy in this case has been the resort to military intervention by both proxy elements and the use of UN cover to collectively intervene to dismantle these surviving hang-overs of the Cold war. In the present context, this is rather unplanned and aims at achieving only one objective, dismantle the regime. All else is secondary: peace, social bonds, political organization, stability, etc, do not matter. The same was true of Iraq yesterday and is true of Libya today.
It did not suffice for Gaddafi to be removed for a new political and social order to be ushered in. On the contrary, one can say that the brutal end of the regime and the chaotic transition through an amateurish experimentation with democracy is responsible for the current state of affairs. It did not suffice for one to be a former opponent of Gaddafi to become a veritable democrat. This chaos has heightened as a result of the development of sectarian divisions and radical political creeds (some of them borrowing from some forms of politicized Islam such as one would find with Salafists, Al-Qaeda, etc.).
These divisions pit Libyans against each other on several fronts in a sort of war-of-all-against all. Lastly, one needs to be sure that the war ended with the death of Gaddafi. Pro-Gaddafi elements are still active as one of the several sectarian fronts at work.
Can Libya still hold on together, given the threat posed by various armed groups and militias?
The question should not be whether Libya can still hold together, but whether it can still constitute a viable political project. It is at such moments that a people can ask themselves whether they are a nation with a political project or an artificial creation imposed from outside. Such a solution can either be a political act through an artificial treaty or an imposed class of leaders such as the ones in Iraq and what they are trying to do in Libya.
Expectedly, such a political class has no touch with local realities and cannot represent the general interest beyond cleavages. This is the role of Libyans alone. This is what self-determination means. Keeping the country intact is possible only on the condition that Libyans willingly accept to found a political society of their making that will be free, tolerant, egalitarian, plural and fraternal. This will definitely succeed if it is not imposed from outside.
For there to be political stability, there should be consensus around a political community. This is lacking in Libya.
What future do you see for a post-Gaddafi Libya?
All societies have the capacity to fashion out their futures in novel ways. This cannot be the work of a single individual as Gaddafi claimed he could; neither can it be the effort of external forces who believe in the magic wand to transform all societies in their image. This is an opportunity for Libyans to take their destiny into their hands and found a new society that accommodates everybody. I am optimistic about the future of Libya, just am for the Central African Republic. There is no fatalism about anything in any country.
