It is four months since fighting broke out between South Sudan’s army and dissident troops.

Fierce fighting has been raging on in South Sudan between troops loyal to President Salva Kiir Mayardit and rebels of Dr Riek Machar Teny Dhurgon, a former Vice President. A simmering conflict between the two came to a head on December 15, 2013 when the President accused Machar of attempting to overthrow him.

More than four months on, peace is yet to return to the beleaguered country - in spite of mediation efforts.  A ceasefire deal signed by the two sides in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, on January 23, 2014, is hardly being observed on the ground. Expectedly, the consequences on the world’s newest State that became independent on July 9, 2011, are enormous.

Military Situation

Armed men on April 17, 2014 attacked a UN displaced people’s camp in the Jonglei State capital, Bor, killing 58 IDPs. Rebels on April 15, 2014 recaptured Bentiu, capital of the strategic oil-rich Unity State, threatening to cut off oil production, the country’s economic lifeline. After ordering oil workers to leave within a week, the rebels say their next target is to march on the capital, Juba. Oil production dropped by 20 per cent after the conflict started. Thousands of people are believed to have been killed, and more than one million have fled their homes.

An estimated 10,000 people died in the first four weeks of fighting. In addition to widespread displacement, reports of mass killings, sexual violence, and other war crimes have emerged from the recent round of violence. According to observers, the conflict has the potential to set South Sudan’s development back by many years.

Looming Famine 

The UN Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon last week warned that up to a million people could face famine unless there is immediate action. Speaking on April 16, 2014, he said there were extremely high levels of malnutrition among hundreds of thousands of people displaced by the conflict, especially women and children. The United Nations Children’s Fund, UNICEF, on the other hand warns that as many as 50,000 children could die before the year’s end for want of food.

Dwindling Literacy

After decades of brutal civil war that left two and a half million dead, the devastated and vastly underdeveloped southern part of the then Sudan secured its independence in 2011. The literacy situation in South Sudan before the current conflict was dire. The adult literacy rate was only 27 per cent. According to the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organisation, UNESCO, only 30 per cent of children between the ages of six and 17 years ever set foot inside a classroom. On the other hand, UNICEF says only one in 10 children completed primary school! With the massive displacements caused by the current conflict, the literacy situation is expected to be much worse. 

Funding Shortfall

The European Union, United Nations and US admit that humanitarian operations are being hampered by a funding gap of nearly 800 million Dollars (about FCFA 379 billion). They warn that the approaching rainy season could further strain operations and limit access to the people in need. South Sudan is extremely poor and most residents survive only on the crops they plant and harvest. Because of the fighting, many residents are not able to plant crops ahead of the coming rainy season.  

Breached Ceasefire Deal

Among the major obstacles to reaching peace is the January 23, 2014 ceasefire that has been broken frequently. While peace talks in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa, have stalled, the US, UK, the EU and Norway have threatened measures against rival sides. US President, Barack Obama, last month, authorised possible targeted sanctions against those committing human rights abuses or undermining democracy and obstructing the peace process.

Release Of Detainees

Seven of the high-profile alleged coup suspects were released to Kenyan custody on January 29, 2014. They were subsequently allowed to travel to Addis Ababa to participate in peace negotiations. While one suspect is still under house arrest, former Army Chief of Staff, Oyai Deng Ajak, ex-Sudan’s People’s Liberation Movement, SPLM Secretary General, Pagan Amum Okiech, former Deputy Defence Minister, Majak D'Agoot and a diplomat, Ezekiel Lul Gatkuoth, went on trial on March 11, 2014.

They all face charges including treason, incitement of the masses, causing disaffection among police or defence forces, defaming the government of South Sudan and undermining the authority of or insulting the President.