Libya’s woes appear to be worsening by the day since the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi.

Almost three years after the much-taunted overthrow of erstwhile Libyan leader, Col. Muammar Gaddafi on August 22, 2011 in a Western-backed war, the country is yet to know any peace.

Gaddafi’s Prediction

During the dying days of his four-decade rule, Muammar Gaddafi made an ominous prophecy, warning that if his regime fell, jihadists would subjugate Libya and northern Africa by inflicting widespread violence and terror. “Al-Qaeda considers all the people to be infidels,” he declared in a speech weeks before the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, NATO, began its military intervention in Libya in March 2011.

“They deem all people their enemies. They know nothing but killing,” he explained, predicting that Islamists would pour into the country from all over. For years, Gaddafi had warned of radical Islamists bubbling below the surface in North Africa. Less than three years after his assassination on October 20, 2011, what Gaddafi prophesied is fast becoming a daily reality.

Divided Political Class    

The Supreme Court on Thursday, June 5, 2014, cancelled last month’s election of Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg by the Transitional Parliament or the General National Congress, GNC. Ahmed Maiteg was Libya’s fifth PM since Muammar Gaddafi’s overthrow. The case was brought by disgruntled GNC members who raised a 14-count charge, arguing that the vote was marred by irregularities. Maiteg, a 42-year-old businessman, immediately appealed the ruling. The decision came as the country prepares for elections into Parliament later this month.

Meanwhile, former PM Abdullah al-Thinni, who resigned on April 23, 2014, after rebels attacked his home, later came back on his decision, refusing to quit his office. When forces loyal to Maiteg stormed the building, al-Thinni and a group of loyal former ministers fled to Beidha in the east of the country.

Major Gen. Khalifa Haftar    

A new major player in Libya’s political scene is retired Major Gen. Khalifa Haftar, a former Chief of Army Staff under Gaddafi. On May 16, 2014, he launched ‘Operation Dignity,’ a ground and air campaign aimed at ridding the country of “Islamist terrorist domination.” He has vowed to crush Islamists whom he accuses of seizing control of the country and opening the door to al-Qaeda-inspired extremists.

Haftar’s main target is the GNC and militias, especially in the city of Benghazi. His men recently raided Parliament building in the capital, Tripoli. He accuses many GNC members of having an Islamist agenda. His ‘National Army’ forces have received the backing of some regular army units, militias and political leaders. Haftar did not recognise the government of deposed Prime Minister Ahmed Maiteg which he considered as an Islamist imposition. On the other hand, Maiteg accused him of leading an attempted coup.

Secular, Islamist Militias

At the core of Libya’s insecurity is the power of its non-State armed formations. Often denoted as ‘militias,’ the country’s many armed groups are referred to in local parlance as ‘kata’ib’ or brigades. They vary in size, affiliation with the central government, regional, tribal or ethnic inclination, Islamist outlook and links to political parties. Many of them did not take part in the war against Gaddafi, but arose after it ended.

The most powerful of the Islamist armed groups arose in the early days of the war against Gaddafi. They are the February 17 Revolutionary Brigade, the Rafallah Sahati Companies, the Zawiya Maryrs Brigade, the Omar Mukhtar Brigade, the Ahrar Libya Brigade, and the Annas Ibn Malik Brigade. Their leaders were once detained by Gaddafi in Abu Salim Prison, Tripoli and some have combat experience in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Mohamed Zahawi heads the Ansar Al-Sharia Islamist militant group that is based in Benghazi. His troops have been the major target of Gen. Haftar’s attacks. Ansar Al-Sharia reportedly led the deadly attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi on September 12, 2012 that resulted in the killing of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three other American staff.

Cyrenaica Separatists

Federalists on June 1, 2013, declared Cyrenaica’s autonomy. Led by Sheikh Ahmed Zubair Senussi, they say as a federal territory within Libya, Cyrenaica will henceforth run its own affairs. Ibrahim Jathran, the self-proclaimed leader of Cyrenaican separatists, wrested control of the oil in the region and tried to export it independently before a deal was struck with the central government. Near cross border smuggling routes between Chad and Niger, intermittent clashes often erupt between local tribesmen. 

Jihadist Safe Haven

Libya is today confronted with the presence of foreign jihadist cells like Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM and Al-Qaeda proper. Algeria’s dreaded Algerian terrorist leader, Moktar Belmoktar of the Mulathameen Brigade or the ‘Masked Ones,’ is now said to be hiding in Libya after the January 6, 2013 deadly siege on the In Aménas natural gas facility in his country.

Some jihad fighters took refuge in Libya after the French-led campaign in northern Mali in 2013. A recent UN report said Libyan portable surface-to-air missiles capable of bringing down low-flying aircraft were now in circulation in Mali, Tunisia, Chad, Lebanon and ‘potentially’ the Central African Republic. Libyan arms are also understood to have been supplied to Nigeria’s Boko Haram militants.